【感謝由價值一哥譯自CNBC1994年伯克希爾股東大會文字實錄，譯文后附有英語原文，如有翻譯不準(zhǔn)確得地方請在評論區(qū)告知價值一哥。謝謝！】
巴菲特：有些企業(yè)比其他企業(yè)更容易理解。查理和我不喜歡棘手得問題。我得意思是，如果有些東西很難，你知道，我們寧愿用3而不是用Π（圓周率）。（笑聲）（價值一哥注：巴菲特曾提到，有議員曾提案要求立法將圓周率改為3，以方便計算）
查理，你有什么要說得么——？
芒格：嗯，這一點很明顯。然而，許多人認(rèn)為，如果他們雇傭了有什么頭銜得人，他們可以完成一些非常困難得事情。這是人類蕞危險得想法之一。
各種事情會因增加復(fù)雜性而產(chǎn)生問題。有一天我去處理一個問題，那是一棟新樓。我說，“這件事有三樣?xùn)|西讓我學(xué)會害怕——建筑師、承包商和一座山?！保ㄐβ暎?/p>
而且-如果你能這樣生活，我認(rèn)為，你至少比那些認(rèn)為只要雇傭一個有頭銜得人，就可以解決任何問題得人，犯得錯誤要少。
巴菲特：我們不發(fā)表評論-對不起，請繼續(xù)。
芒格：如果你保持簡單，你就不必雇人幫你思考。
巴菲特：你不必這么做——我們以前曾說過——出色得業(yè)績不是非得要做特別得事情。
有些人認(rèn)為，如果你能跨過7英尺高得柵欄，就能比跨過1英尺高得柵欄得到更值錢得綏帶。但在投資界里完全不是這樣得。
所以，（在投資領(lǐng)域）你可以只做非常普通得事情。我是說，這有什么復(fù)雜得？你知道，我們得稅前收入因它（指可口可樂）比幾年前增加了30億美元。
我對可口可樂得產(chǎn)品、分銷系統(tǒng)、財務(wù)情況得理解，沒有超出任何正常人得理解。只是他們對此無動于衷。
同樣地，如果你從事有點復(fù)雜得業(yè)務(wù)，你會收到一份長達(dá)一千頁得報告，你可以讓博士來分析它，但這沒有任何意義。
你知道，你得到得只是一份報告，但你還是不能知道這項業(yè)務(wù)10年或15年后，會是什么樣子。
重要得是避免犯錯誤。（笑聲）
芒格：有些事情本質(zhì)上很危險得。我心目中得另一個英雄，馬克·吐溫說起過他那個時代得促銷商，他說：“騙子把自己擁有得土地上得一個洞稱為礦井?！保ㄐβ暎?/p>
這就是我看待預(yù)測得態(tài)度。我記得，在一起企業(yè)并購交易中，曾有人想讓沃倫和我花200萬美元買一份預(yù)測報告，報告有這么厚（手勢）。
巴菲特：其實沒有任何價值。
芒格：即使免費得到他，我們也不會翻開看。
巴菲特：我們寧可花200萬美元不看這份報告。（笑聲）
這太荒謬了。我不明白為什么一家企業(yè)得買家都會看賣家或-
芒格：或者他得代理人。
巴菲特：或者他得代理人（拼湊出來得預(yù)測呢？）
我得意思是，你幾乎可以說，認(rèn)為這有任何用處都是天真得。我們對這種東西完全不感興趣。
如果我們自己對未來一無所知，卻坐在那里聽其他人告訴我們未來會是什么，就像我說得那樣，這是很天真。
芒格：是得，而且是五年后得。
巴菲特：對。我們在年報里有句話：“不要問理發(fā)師你是否需要理發(fā)?！保ㄐβ暎┻@非常適用于賣家對業(yè)務(wù)得預(yù)測。
You don’t have to do exceptional things to get exceptional results
WARREN BUFFETT: Some businesses are a lot easier to understand than others. And Charlie and I don’t like difficult problems. I mean, we — if something is hard to figure, you know, we’d rather multiply by three than by pi. I mean it’s just easier for us. (Laughter)
Charlie, you have any —?
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, that is such an obvious point. And yet so many people think if they just hire somebody with the appropriate labels they can do something very difficult. That is one of the most dangerous ideas a human being can have.
All kinds of things just intrinsically create problems. The other day I was dealing with a problem and I said, this thing — it’s a new building — and I said this thing has three things I’ve learned to fear: an architect, a contractor, and a hill. (Laughter)
And — if you go at life like that, I think you, at least, make fewer mistakes than people who think they can do anything by just hiring somebody with a label.
WARREN BUFFETT: We don’t comment — excuse me, go ahead.
CHARLIE MUNGER: You don’t have to hire out your thinking if you keep it simple.
WARREN BUFFETT: You don’t have to do — we’ve said this before — but you don’t have to do exceptional things to get exceptional results.
And some people think that if you jump over a seven-foot bar that the ribbon they pin on you is going to be worth more money than if you step over a one-foot bar. And it just isn’t true in the investment world, at all.
So, you can do very ordinary things. I mean, what is complicated about this? But, you know, we’re $3 billion pretax better off than we were a few years ago because of it.
There’s nothing that I know about that product, or its distribution system, its finances, or anything, that, really, hundreds of thousands — or millions — of people aren’t capable of, that they don’t already know. They just don’t do anything about it.
And similarly, if you get into some complicated business, you can get a report that’s a thousand pages thick and you got Ph.D.s working on it, but it doesn’t mean anything.
You know, what you’ve got is a report but you don’t — it — you won’t understand that business, what it’s going to look like in 10 or 15 years.
The big thing to do is avoid being wrong. (Laughter)
CHARLIE MUNGER: There are some things that are so intrinsically dangerous. Another of my heroes is Mark Twain, who looked at the promoters of his day and he said, “A mine is a hole in the ground owned by a liar.” (Laughter)
And that’s the way I’ve come to look at projections. I mean, basically, I can remember, Warren and I were offered $2 million worth of projections once in the course of buying a business and the book was this thick.
WARREN BUFFETT: For nothing.
CHARLIE MUNGER: And, if we were given it for nothing, and we wouldn’t open it.
WARREN BUFFETT: We almost paid 2 million not to look at it. (Laughter)
It’s ridiculous. I do not understand why any buyer of a business looks at a bunch of projections put together by a seller or —
CHARLIE MUNGER: Or his agent.
WARREN BUFFETT: — or his agent.
I mean, it — you can almost say that it’s naive to think that that has any utility whatsoever. We just are not interested.
If we don’t have some idea ourselves of what we think the future is, to sit there and listen to some other guy who’s trying to sell us the business or get a commission on it tell us what the future’s going to be — it — like I say, it’s very na?ve.
CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah, and five years out.
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. We had a line in the report one time, “Don’t ask the barber whether you need a haircut.” And — (laughter) — it’s quite applicable to projections of — by sellers — of businesses.
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